Research
Research
Publications
Smith, Dana J., Paul Christian, Brian Dillon, Erin Lentz, Hope Michelson, and Joanna Upton. “Sentinels and Satellites: Food Security Monitoring from Near and Far.” Food Policy (2026) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2026.103189
The last decade has seen two major innovations in the measurement of food insecurity. The first is the establishment of sentinel site surveys—high frequency, long-running panels in areas where food insecurity is common—to assist with detecting and targeting assistance. The second is the use of remotely sensed data to predict food insecurity, without relying on data collected by local survey teams. We use sentinel site data to gain insights into food insecurity with unprecedented temporal granularity. Working from a model of household food security that allows for serially correlated shocks and heterogeneity in the returns to household assets, we then examine the relative food security forecasting performance 1–12 months into the future of sentinel site data, remotely sensed data, and traditional survey data. We find that past measures of food security are better predictors than past measures of stock variables such as assets, and that sentinel site data substantially outperform remotely sensed data. Satellite data are less costly to collect than sentinel site data, but the potential cost-savings are largely eliminated by the need for substantial volumes of survey-based training data to improve forecasting accuracy.
Smith, Dana J. “Climate Change, Violence, and Remittance Flows in Mexico.” International Migration Review (2025) https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183251392493
This paper studies how domestic and international remittances respond to weather shocks in Mexico and whether local violence affects the use of remittances as insurance. I use a novel combination of state-level, administrative, survey, and remotely sensed panel data to investigate these questions. Estimating a gravity model that accounts for network characteristics and potential spatial dependence, I find that remittances are selective, responding positively to drought but negatively to violence. The negative impact of violence is even larger in areas experiencing drought, suggesting that households facing violence are especially vulnerable to weather shocks as they are less able to cope using remittances. I further unpack the costs of both drought and violence by studying spillovers from neighboring states. I find that the degree of violence in neighboring states magnifies the main impact, motivating regional policy approaches.
Smith, Dana J. “What Drives Undocumented Immigration? Policy, economic, and social factors in the US and Mexico.” Eastern Economic Journal (2025) https://doi.org/10.1057/s41302-025-00313-9
The discourse on undocumented immigration to the United States often centers on place-based policies, such as those that create “sanctuary” on the one hand, or that promote “self-deportation” on the other. How much do these policies actually affect migration patterns? This paper uses administrative data on likely undocumented Mexican immigrants to estimate the impact of state-level immigration policy on location decisions and compare this to the role of labor market characteristics and violence. Using a fixed effects model that accounts for Mexican state to US state networks, I do not find evidence that state-level policy drives immigration patterns and instead labor market conditions and violent crime explain Mexican migration across US states.
Smith, Dana J., Jennifer Ifft and Ejin Kim “Minimum wage increases and agricultural employment of locals and guest workers.” Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. 1 no. 3 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1002/jaa2.27 (Open Access)
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We estimate the impact of the minimum wage on US farm worker employment by exploiting state-level variation in recent minimum wage increases. A $1.00 increase in the minimum wage decreases the likelihood of employment for an individual farm worker by around one percentage point, with the effect concentrated among native and naturalized US citizens. However, we find no evidence of a relationship between minimum wage and either the number of farm workers or guest workers. The difference between these results may be due to lower international migration to high minimum wage states. Citizenship and immigration status can influence the impact of labor market regulations on the farm workforce.
Working Papers
Smith, Dana J., Huiyi Chen, and Molly L. Brewer. “The Effect of Abortion Bans on College Decisions.”
Puerto, Sergio and Dana J. Smith. “Return Migration and Labor Allocation in Ethiopia”
Selected Works in Progress
Esprabens, Luc, Anthony Ponce, and Dana J. Smith. “Converging Crises: Understanding the Impact of Climate Change and Violence on Migration in Mexico”
Smith, Dana J. “American Immigration Policy and Violence Against Women in Mexico”
Smith, Dana J., Joanna Upton and Farnaz Safari. “Self-Selection and Shocks: Exploring Migration Patterns in Malawi”